Feeding 10 billion people sustainably: it is possible
The global food supply faces a historic challenge: by 2070 we must be able to feed almost 10 billion people. To achieve this, food production must increase by forty percent, which means that the impact on the environment must simultaneously be drastically reduced. This is no easy task. Considering lower food production due to climate change, loss of biodiversity and impoverishment of agricultural land, the challenge proofs to be even greater. If we continue on the same path, the agricultural area will need to grow by thirteen percent compared to 2020, which amounts to an area twice the size of India. That amount of acreage is simply not available on our planet. ‘Turning point: Feeding the world sustainably’, a new study by Deloitte, asserts that the transition is eminently feasible while also offering economic opportunities worth 121 trillion dollars.
Multifaceted strategy
The report identifies five solutions to transform the food system. First, and most impactful, accelerating innovation and technology is needed to produce more efficiently while consuming fewer resources. Second, protecting and restoring natural capital, such as soil, water, vegetation, wildlife and ecosystem services, is essential, as healthy ecosystems are crucial for agriculture. Third, we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by adopting climate-friendly agricultural practices. Fourth, behavioral change towards more sustainable food choices is important, with consumers being better informed about the impact of their choices. Finally, strengthening circularity in the food system is necessary to reduce the demand for new raw materials.
Economic impact
The economic impact of this transformation is significant. ‘Our analysis indicates that a sustainable food system could increase global food production by 1031 trillion calories, equivalent to a value of $22 trillion over the next fifty years. The current approach to food production is not sustainable,’ says Randy Jagt, global future of food leader at Deloitte. ‘Sustainable transformation of our food system will address the major challenges we face, and benefit populations already disproportionately affected by food insecurity and climate change. Transformation will ensure that we can improve food security, lift 300 million people out of malnutrition and reduce global food prices by sixteen percent.
Strikingly, the greatest gains will be in lower-income countries. Regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, Oceania and South America can expect a twelve percent increase in GDP and an increase in food consumption of up to 626 extra calories per person per day by 2070. These improvements could lift 300 million people out of malnutrition, which would have a huge impact on global food security.
The investment agenda
According to the World Bank, an annual investment of 260 billion dollars is needed between now and 2030 to make this transition possible. The complexity of the challenge furthermore requires cooperation between all stakeholders in the value chain. Financial institutions, technology companies, manufacturers, suppliers and governments must join forces.
That this is possible, is the conclusion of the report. By intervening now, we can not only create a more sustainable food system but also achieve substantial economic growth and significantly reduce global malnutrition. But the longer we wait, the more challenging the transition will become.
Dit research, by Randy Jagt, partner and global future of food leader bij Deloitte, was published in Management Scope 03 2025.